The Tape
The hobby’s macro numbers are doing the talking this week, and they’re loud. eBay’s sports card singles market posted its best first half ever in H1 2026, up roughly 67% year over year and, for the first time, north of a billion dollars in half-year volume, according to data reported by Sports Collectors Daily and Athlon Sports. More encouraging for anyone worried about a speculative bubble: over 5 million cards were authenticated industry-wide in that same window, meaning the growth is backed by real supply hitting the secondary market, not just prices running hot.
Underneath that bullish headline, the grading industry is having a rougher go of it. PSA’s parent company, Collectors Holdings, is now fending off three separate lawsuits, including an antitrust case that had its first real day in court on September 11. Vintage stayed vintage at auction, with Mantle and Mays cards anchoring a 4,600-lot REA sale that closed September 20, while modern stars whipsawed hard on the back of early-season performance and roster shakeups. Grading is mostly contained to its own desk below, but the litigation is big enough that it earns a spot up top.
Top Stories
1. Topps takes over the NFL, and the football card map gets redrawn. Fanatics-owned Topps officially became the NFL and NFLPA’s exclusive trading card licensee for its first full season in the role, ending Panini’s run atop football cards. On September 12, Topps launched two new programs built for the new license: an online-exclusive NFL Living Set and a regular-season Topps NOW program, following the same playbook that’s worked for Topps in baseball for years (Sports Collectors Daily, September 12, 2026). This is the kind of licensing shift that reshapes an entire category’s supply, pricing dynamics, and collector attention for years, not weeks.
2. Collectors Holdings is fighting a legal war on three fronts. PSA’s parent company is defending against a stacked set of lawsuits that, taken together, challenge both its market structure and its grading integrity. The lead antitrust case, Rasmussen v. Collectors Holdings, alleges the company’s control of PSA, SGC, and Beckett let it raise prices and throttle capacity after consolidating the market; an amended complaint added two more plaintiffs on August 3. Two newer consumer suits raise separate allegations: one claims PSA’s grading standards are opaque and shaped by production incentives, while another alleges the company refuses to “cross” competitor grades on certain high-end cards and singles out the CEO’s personal collection as a potential conflict of interest. Collectors Holdings asked the court to dismiss the antitrust case or force it into private arbitration, and a federal judge heard oral arguments on both motions September 11. No ruling has been issued as of this writing. All allegations remain unproven, but the outcome could reshape how much control one company is allowed to hold over card authentication (sources: Athlon Sports, Value Added Resource, court filings in the Central District of California).
3. The hobby just posted its biggest first half on record, and it’s not just hype. eBay’s H1 2026 sports card sales climbed roughly 67% year over year and grew about 40% sequentially from the second half of 2025, crossing the billion-dollar mark for a first half for the first time. Broader collectibles, including trading card games and non-sport categories, grew even faster, a signal that dollars are diversifying beyond traditional sports cards even as sports itself grows in absolute terms (Sports Collectors Daily, Athlon Sports).
4. Fanatics Collect is paying collectors to stay inside its own ecosystem. At the National Sports Collectors Convention on July 31, Fanatics Collect announced it will waive seller fees entirely for sellers who take their payout in FanCash instead of cash, giving sellers the full hammer price when they agree to keep the money inside the Fanatics universe of Collect, Topps, Fanatics.com, and live breaks. CEO Nick Bell was candid that the move trades near-term revenue for platform stickiness, betting collector loyalty is worth more than transaction fees. It’s a notable bet on lock-in economics from the hobby’s largest marketplace operator, and one worth watching for how competitors respond.
Movers Desk
Modern rookie and star cards moved on performance and depth-chart news this month, not hype alone, per market tracking cited in The Hobby Wire’s September state-of-the-hobby roundup.
Up:
- Pete Crow-Armstrong rookie autographs have climbed sharply since Opening Day as his MVP case has strengthened through the season.
- Kyler Murray Silver Prizm cards jumped meaningfully after he claimed the Vikings’ starting quarterback job in mid-August.
- Cooper Flagg continues to set his own market on fire. His rookie debut patch autograph is the marquee lot in Fanatics Collect’s September Premier Auction, and his personal autograph high has been reset multiple times over the past few months as new game-used and debut-tied cards have come to market.
Down:
- Cal Raleigh rookie refractors have fallen sharply year to date as his production has cooled from his early-season pace.
- JJ McCarthy Silver Prizm cards dropped after losing the Vikings’ starting job to Murray.
- Fernando Mendoza cards slid after a rough preseason marked by interceptions, even with a high-profile Flagship cover placement working in his favor.
On the vintage side, REA’s September auction (closed September 20) leaned on hobby staples, headlined by graded Mickey Mantle and Willie Mays cards, alongside a broad run of Michael Jordan material and more than 90 complete or near-complete vintage sets.
Grading Desk
PSA’s backlog keeps shrinking, but slowly and from a very deep hole. As of September 22, the company reported roughly 9 million cards in its active backlog, down about 9% in two weeks and down roughly 27% from its July 28 peak of 12.4 million (Sports Collectors Daily, via Yahoo Finance, September 22, 2026). Value-tier submissions remain paused, and PSA has said it won’t reopen that channel until the backlog falls under 5 million cards, meaning another roughly 4 million cards still need to clear before budget-tier grading returns. To bridge the gap, PSA introduced a new mid-priced “Standard” tier on September 14, alongside a quiet rebrand of its existing tiers (Regular became Priority, Walk-Through became Premier). Standard orders queue behind existing submissions rather than skipping the line. PSA also opened a new grading facility in Frankfurt on September 15, its first direct submission point for European collectors.
SGC, meanwhile, raised prices again on September 2, effectively closing the gap that once let collectors grade lower-value cards more cheaply than at PSA. The company says the increase is meant to fund hiring, facility expansion, and technology investment to fix its own turnaround times, and has signaled further price moves are likely into early 2027 (Bleacher Nation, September 2, 2026). The pricing and capacity moves at both PSA and SGC, both owned by Collectors Holdings, are central to the allegations in the antitrust suit detailed above.
Catalyst Calendar
- Pending: A ruling from Judge John W. Holcomb on Collectors Holdings’ motions to dismiss and compel arbitration in the Rasmussen antitrust case, following September 11 oral arguments. No timeline has been set publicly.
- September 24: Fanatics Collect’s September Premier Auction closes, headlined by Cooper Flagg’s one-of-one rookie debut patch autograph.
- October 10: Goldin’s Fall Vintage Elite Auction closes.
- Ongoing: Watch PSA’s weekly backlog updates for progress toward the 5-million-card threshold needed to reopen Value-tier grading.
Deal Desk
The Philadelphia Eagles and Arena Club, the marketplace and grading platform co-founded by Derek Jeter, announced a multi-year partnership on August 3, Arena Club’s first official NFL team deal. The agreement covers in-stadium activations at Lincoln Financial Field, digital content featuring Eagles players opening packs, and a discount code for fans on their first purchase. It’s a template worth watching: card platforms courting team-level sports partnerships, rather than just athlete endorsements, to build mainstream distribution.
Separately, Fanatics Collect’s fee-waiver program (see Top Stories) functions as its own kind of deal, trading transaction revenue for deeper collector retention across the Fanatics ecosystem.
Bottom Line
The macro story and the grading story are pulling in different directions right now, and both matter to how you think about allocation. On one hand, the hobby just put up its best first half ever, backed by real authentication volume rather than speculative froth, and a major licensing shift at Topps is about to reshape football card supply for years. On the other, the company that controls the largest share of card authentication is fighting off lawsuits that question whether its post-acquisition pricing and grading practices crossed a legal line, with a consequential ruling still pending. Vintage blue chips continue to anchor major auctions regardless of what’s happening in grading boardrooms, which is exactly the kind of stability the Aristocrat Strategy is built around. Watch the antitrust ruling and PSA’s backlog trajectory closely; either could move faster than the headline growth numbers suggest.
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